Manufacturing industrial transfer is an important approach to promote the optimization and upgrading of industry, as well as leads to the spatial response of environmental pollution. In this paper, we applied the gravity centre model to measure the changes in pollutant discharge patterns from 2005 to 2015 in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta, and then investigated the drivers of pollutant discharge patterns changes with an improved econometric model which integrated the push-pull theory and STIRPAT random regression model. The results revealed great changes in pollutant discharge patterns due to manufacturing industrial transfer, with the pollution gravity centre and total discharge transferring from east to west. We also found indications of a delayed response between the movement of industry and a corresponding reduction in pollutant emissions. The modelling results suggested that differences in regional economy, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, and environmental regulation influenced observed changes in pollutant discharge patterns. Specifically, regional economic conditions and more stringent environmental regulations can push pollution-intensive industry out of developed areas into developing areas. Meanwhile improved innovation milieu and industrial optimization provided resistance for pollution-intensive industries to stay in developed areas as well as encouraging movement into developing areas.

Zhao, HX; Liu, Y; Lindley, S; et al. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118587