Farm size plays a crucial role in shaping food production systems and environmental outcomes. However, its long-term global trends have remained poorly understood.

In a study published in Nature Communications on October 17, a research team led by Professor LIU Lei from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reconstructed and analyzed a global dataset on farm size spanning from 1970 to 2020, revealing key historical shifts and future trajectories.

The study shows that the global average socio-economic farm size—defined as agricultural land area divided by the number of farms—first decreased by 15% from 1970 to 2000, then increased by 14% from 2000 to 2020. Under a moderate future development pathway, it is projected to triple by 2100.

“The main driver of recent and future expansion is rural population decline, which reduces the number of people operating farms, leading to land consolidation,” explained Professor LIU, the corresponding author of the study.

Regional trends, however, diverge significantly. While Europe, Northern America, and Oceania have seen exponential growth in recent decades, countries such as India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced a decline in average farm size due to population pressure and specific land policies.

“Regional divergence in farm size trends reflects structural and institutional conditions,” said Prof. LIU. The impact of policies was also highlighted. The study shows that legislation such as the U.S. Agricultural Adjustment Act accelerated consolidation, while India's Land Ceiling Acts and China's Household Responsibility System have historically preserved smaller farm structures.

These findings underscore profound socio-economic and environmental implications of farm consolidation, which can boost productivity but may also reduce rural employment and biodiversity.

“Policies that promote consolidation should be designed with safeguards to protect smallholder livelihoods and ensure that the benefits do not come at the cost of rural development or food security,” said Prof. LIU.