Why Are Droughts and Floods Becoming Increasingly Frequent in Mid-Latitudes?

In recent years, global climate is becoming more extreme. The alternation of droughts and floods is intensifying, especially in the ecologically vulnerable mid-latitude regions. But what is driving this hydroclimate variability? Scientists have long debated the mechanism.A research team led by Prof. LONG Hao from Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, drilled a 300.8-meter-long lacustrine sediment core in the Datong Basin, Shanxi, located in mid-latitude East Asia (Northern China). By tracing over 5.7 million years of Earth's history, researchers revealed that the "waviness" of the Westerly Jet Stream is the primary driver behind mid-latitude climate variability. The study was published in Nature Communications recently.This core is like a detailed "climate archive" documenting precipitation changes over the past approximately 5.7 million years (spanning the Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs). By analyzing chemical indicators within the core, scientists obtained a high-resolution record of ancient precipitation.First, during the warm period before around 3 million years ago (the Pliocene), the precipitation variability in mid-latitude regions was significantly higher than during the subsequent Pleistocene epoch (the Ice Age era). Scientists attribute this drastic climate fluctuation to enhanced Westerly Jet waviness. Further idealized sensitivity simulations indicated that the force driving the Westerly Jet to become "wavy" was Arctic warming.When the Arctic is cold, the polar vortex is strong, and the Westerly Jet remains stable and straight. Cold air is effectively contained in the north, and the mid-latitude climate is relatively stable.When the Arctic warms, the polar vortex weakens, causing the Westerly Jet to become "sinuous". This fluctuation allows cold and warm air masses to frequently intermingle and penetrate north and south, leading to more frequent extreme wet and dry events in the mid-latitudes, and thus amplifying hydroclimate variability.Also, the study ruled out atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration as the dominant driver of this variability, confirming that Westerly Jet waviness is the key factor.“This study, based on ancient climate records, is crucial for our understanding of future climate change.” said by Prof. LONG Hao. “Given that future global warming is projected to lead to increased Westerly Jet waviness, it is reasonable to predict that mid-latitude regions will face more frequent hydroclimate extreme events, such as severe droughts and floods.”

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When Satellites Make “Mistakes”: How Correcting Visual Errors Can Help Safeguard Global Lakes
2026-04-24
For over 40 years, the Landsat satellite series has acted as Earth's “photographer,” archiving a massive library of global surface imagery. Recently, with the rise of cloud-based platforms like Google Earth Engine (GEE), scientists have been able to process these valuable imagery archives to assess the health of rivers and lakes worldwide.However, the accuracy of these assessments has long been compromised by a hidden “visual error”. The standard Landsat Surface Reflectance products typically used in GEE rely on atmospheric correction algorithms developed for land surfaces. When applied to water with very low water-leaving signals, these algorithms often fail, leading to substantial misestimation of water quality.A research team led by Prof. DUAN Hongtao from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NIGLAS), with doctoral student YANG Chen as the first author and Dr. SHEN Ming and Prof. DUAN Hongtao as co-corresponding authors, has successfully “corrected” this error on a global scale. By analyzing over 1,000 sets of global field measurements, the researchers identified the root causes of these inaccuracies and proposed an optimized GEE-based solution. The findings were published in the ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.Through global comparisons, the researchers pointed two critical issues with Landsat surface reflectance data over inland waters.Firstly, when water bodies are near bright objects like clouds or snow, land-based “aerosol correction” algorithms tend to over-compensate. This results in unrealistic “black patches” (artifacts) on the imagery. The hallmark of this error is a negative reflectance value at 443 nm. This issue affects an average of 13% of global inland water pixels. If ignored, relative error in retrieving key indicators, such as suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, can exceed 100%.Secondly, cross-sensor inconsistency causes data gaps. Analyzing decades of water quality requires stitching together data from Landsat-5, 7, 8, and 9. However, differences in sensor configuration and algorithms across generations create significant reflectance shifts over inland waters. These inconsistencies introduce significant uncertainties into long-term environmental trend analysis.After testing various optimized algorithms on GEE (including SIAC and MAIN), the researchers concluded that the MAIN algorithm, based on the “Short-Wave Infrared black pixel” assumption, is currently the best choice.By avoiding over-correction, MAIN removes artifacts in images, restoring true spatial patterns. Also, it provides a consistent framework across different satellites, improving temporal consistency by over 90% and enabling a seamless 40-year data record. Already deployed on GEE, the algorithm allows researchers to generate high-quality water reflectance products directly in the cloud without downloading massive datasets.For those who must continue using official products, the researchers suggest a simple preprocessing fix: Discard pixels where CA < 0. This low-cost step significantly reduces artifact contamination.This study presents the first global-scale systematic quantification of inherent errors in official Landsat products for inland water monitoring. By recommending the ready-to-use MAIN algorithm, the research provides a quality-control benchmark and an efficient tool for the scientific community. “Our study ensures that 40 years of Earth archives can be used reliably to monitor water resources and safeguard the global environment.” Said by Prof. Duan
Human Activities and Climate Change Jointly Reshape Algal Bloom Intensity and Timing in Lakes Worldwide
2026-04-17
Algal blooms are becoming more frequent and intense in lakes around the world, posing increasing risks to water quality, ecosystem health, and carbon cycling. However, whether stronger blooms also occur earlier or last longer has remained unclear at the global scale.A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment shows that bloom intensity and bloom timing often change independently across global lakes, revealing a more complex response of lake ecosystems to human activities and climate change than previously understood.The study was conducted by researchers from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, together with collaborators from Southwest University. Using two decades of satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the team analyzed algal bloom dynamics in 4,085 lakes larger than 20 km² worldwide. The researchers examined both bloom intensity, represented by fractional floating algal cover (FAC), and bloom timing, including the start and end dates of bloom seasons.The results showed that about 71% of lakes exhibited increasing bloom intensity between 2003 and 2022. In contrast, changes in bloom timing were much more spatially heterogeneous. Some lakes showed earlier bloom onset, while others exhibited delayed onset or shifts in bloom ending. This pattern indicates a partial decoupling between bloom intensity and bloom phenology at the global scale.The researchers further found that the drivers of these changes differ. Human-related factors, especially population density, agricultural pressure, and economic development, were more strongly associated with increasing bloom intensity. By comparison, climatic factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation played a greater role in regulating bloom timing, particularly in lakes located in cold and temperate regions.Future projections under different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios suggest that this divergence may become even more pronounced under continued climate change. Tropical lakes are projected to experience rapid bloom intensification with relatively modest timing shifts, whereas cold-region lakes are expected to show contrasting phenological responses across regions. For example, European lakes may exhibit earlier bloom onset and later bloom ending, while North American lakes may show the opposite tendency.According to the researchers, these findings highlight that global lake algal blooms cannot be understood solely in terms of increasing intensity. Changes in bloom timing may alter food-web structure, ecological stability, and carbon cycling, even when intensity changes are modest. The study therefore provides an important scientific basis for region-specific lake management and risk mitigation under climate change.
Climate change and human activities drive divergent water salinity trends in global salt lakes
2026-04-15
Salt lakes are important in global hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, accounting for approximately 44% of the total lake water volume worldwide. Water salinity serves as the key variable regulating physical, ecological, and chemical processes in these systems, playing a decisive role in regional ecological security and the sustainability of water resources.However, both climate change and intensifying human activities are altering the water salinity of these vital ecosystems, according to a comprehensive new study published in Earth-Science Reviews.Led by researcher Prof. SONG Chunqiao from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the study presents an interdisciplinary review of the spatiotemporal dynamics, monitoring technologies, and socio-environmental consequences of salt lake salinity.The research team synthesized global records to analyze the evolution of monitoring methods. They noted a significant transformation from traditional point sampling to large-scale, long-term dynamic monitoring systems centered on satellite remote sensing and machine learning. The study reveals a highly heterogeneous spatial pattern of water salinity changes globally. While global salt lakes are predominantly distributed across arid and semi-arid zones, they are currently experiencing strongly divergent evolutionary trajectories.The researchers found that salt lakes in arid regions are frequently undergoing aggravated salinization, primarily driven by agricultural irrigation and increased aridity. Conversely, high-altitude salt lakes, particularly those on the Tibetan Plateau, exhibit significant desalination due to increased water volumes and glacial melt associated with a warming and wetting climate.These dynamic shifts in salinity exert cascading impacts across socio-ecological systems. The study details how altered salinity dynamically reshapes food web structures, regulates physical stratification and elemental cycling, and ultimately exerts severe impacts on soil salinization, drinking water safety, and critical infrastructure across watersheds.“These findings underscore the profound vulnerability of salt lake ecosystems to global environmental changes and local human interventions, emphasizing the need to move beyond mere monitoring toward predictive modeling of future salinity changes.” said by Prof. Song.
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Int’l Cooperation News

National Key Research and Development Program Plan (Sino-Mongolian international cooperation project) Successfully Convoked in Nanjing and Bayannur
2023-09-11

  On September 4th to 7th, 2023, the symposiums on the establishment and implementation of the National Key Research and Development Program of China, i.e. Sino-Mongolian Intergovernmental Joint Research Program: The impacts of global change on nutrient cycles and ecosystem evolution in shallow lakes in Sino-Mongolian cold-arid area (No. 2023YFE0100500) were successfully held in Nanjing and Bayannur. 
  Prof. ZHANG Ganlin, the director of Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NIGLAS), delivered a welcoming address on behalf of the host institution. Dr. Odsuren, the scientific secretary of the Institute of Geography and Geoecology, Mongolian Academy of Sciences (IGG, MAS) made a detailed introduction of IGG, MAS. 
  After that, the project leader Dr. HAN Chao, introduced the current state of lake ecosystems in China and presented a comprehensive report on the overall research objectives, content, implementation plan, expected outcomes, innovative aspects, task decomposition, and progress schedule of the joint project. Followed, Dr. Narangerel from IGG, MAS presented a detailed introduction to the research team's prior achievements in the field of lake science in the cold-arid regions of Mongolia and the current ecological environment of Lake Ugii. 
  During the local coordination symposium held in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia, Director Bao Wei from Wuliangsu Lake Ecological Protection Center extended a warm welcome to the attending experts. He emphasized that this project was a significant decision and deployment for the protection and comprehensive management of Wuliangsu Lake, which would effectively support the ecological environment protection on Wuliangsu Lake. Subsequently, the joint program teams carried out discussions and communications with the local administrators regarding the implementation plan, research platform status and infrastructure, data collection and sharing, preparation of field instruments and equipment, training of young researchers, and fieldwork plans. After the meeting, all members conducted the field surveys on Wuliangsu Lake. 
  More than 20 experts and major leaders from NIGLAS, IGGMAS, and Wuliangsu Lake Ecological Protection Center participated in the symposiums. It further expanded the researcher exchanges and cooperation, promoted friendly contacts and mutual understanding between the two sides, which played a significant role in facilitating the smooth implementation of the joint project.
  (photo by NIGLAS)
  
Synergistic effects of warming and internal nutrient loading interfere with the long-term stability of lake restoration and induce sudden re-eutrophication
2023-02-27

  Urban lakes are globally ubiquitous and are usually highly eutrophic, pointing to an increase in frequency, duration and magnitude of harmful algal blooms as wide-spread threats to ecological and human health. 
  Over half a century, phosphate (P) precipitation is among the most effective treatments to mitigate eutrophication in these lakes. However, after a period of high effectiveness, re-eutrophication would possibly occur leading to the return of harmful algal blooms. While such abrupt ecological changes were presumably attributed to internal P loading, the role of lake warming and its potential synergistic effects with the internal loading, thus far, has been largely understudied. 
  Researchers led by Dr. KONG Xiangzhen and Prof. Dr. XUE Bin from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, along with their international collaborators, have addressed the question by quantifying the contributions of lake warming and the potential synergistic effects with internal P loading in an urban lake located in central Germany, which suffered from the abrupt re-eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms in 2016 (30 years after the first P precipitation). 
  Their findings were published in Environmental Science & Technology on Feb. 20. 
  In this study, a process-based lake ecosystem model (GOTM-WET) was established using a high-frequency monitoring dataset covering eutro-/oligo-trophic states over 30 years. 
  Model analyses suggested that, for the abrupt occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms, internal P release accounts for 68% of the biomass proliferation, while lake warming contributed to 32%, including both direct effects via promoting growth (18%) and synergistic effects via intensifying internal P loading (14%). The model further revealed that the synergy was attributed to prolonged lake hypolimnion warming and oxygen depletion. 
  “Our study exemplifies how process-based mechanistic modeling could help to tease apart important drivers of abrupt shifts and cyanobacterial blooms in lakes, particularly in an era of rapid global changes including climate change and human activities.” said Dr. Kong. 
  This study unravels the substantial role of lake warming in promoting cyanobacterial blooms in re-eutrophicated lakes. The indirect effects of warming on cyanobacteria via promoting internal loading need more attention in future lake research and management. 
  “Our findings will have far-reaching consequences for lake restoration and management as the nutrient targets we applied so far to reach or maintain a certain trophic state will not work in a far warmer future and need to be adjusted, i.e. stronger nutrient level reduction and higher efforts in restoration are demanded.” said Dr. Kong.
   
  link: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c07181
   
   
  Contact 
  TAN Lei 
  Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology 
  E-mail: ltan@niglas.ac.cn
Sediment organic matter properties facilitate understanding nitrogen transformation potentials in East African lakes
2022-10-20

  East African lakes include the most productive and alkaline lake group in the world. Yet, they generally receive fewer nutrient inputs than the densely populated subtropical and temperate lakes in the northern hemisphere. In these lakes with insufficient supplies of inorganic nitrogen, the mineralization of benthic organic matter can play an important role in driving the nutrient cycle and nitrogen loss. Using a suite of stable 15N isotope dilution and tracer techniques, we examined five main processes of the sediment nitrogen cycle in 16 lakes and reservoirs of Tanzania and Kenya, East Africa: gross nitrogen mineralization, ammonium immobilization, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA), and the dinitrogen (N2) production via denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox). Gross nitrogen mineralization and ammonium immobilization showed the maximum values of 9.84 and 12.39 μmol N kg-1 h-1 , respectively. Potential DNRA rates ranged from 0.22 to 8.15 μmol N kg-1 h-1 and accounted for 10 %–74 % (average 25 %) of the total dissimilatory nitrate reduction. Potential nitrate reduction rates in most lakes were dominated by denitrification with a contribution of 26 %–85 % and a mean of 65 %. We further found that the sediment nitrogen transformations were driven mainly by benthic organic matter properties and water column phosphate concentrations, reflecting microbial metabolic responses to the changing carbon and nutrients availability. For instance, autochthonous production of protein-like organic matter attributed to active sediment nitrogen mineralization, DNRA, and denitrification. In contrast, the high degree of humification caused by the inputs of terrestrial humic-like substances slowed down the sediment nitrogen transformations. The contribution of DNRA to total dissimilatory nitrate reduction was significantly positively correlated to sediment C: N ratios. These results indicate that predictions of sediment N supply and loss in East African lakes can be improved by incorporating sediment organic matter properties.
  Xiaolong Yao, Zhonghua Zhao, Jianjun Wang, Qiqi Ding, Minglei Ren, Ismael Aaron Kimirei, Lu Zhang, Sediment organic matter properties facilitate understanding nitrogen transformation potentials in East African lakes, Science of The Total Environment, 841, 2022, 156607, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156607.
A comprehensive evaluation of organic micropollutants (OMPs) pollution and prioritization in equatorial lakes from mainland Tanzania, East Africa
2022-05-17

  A lack of understanding the fate of highly toxic organic micropollutants (OMPs) in the equatorial lakes of Tanzania hinders public awareness for protecting these unique aquatic ecosystems, which are precious water resources and stunning wildlife habitats. To address this knowledge gap, the occurrence of 70 anthropogenically-sourced OMPs, including phthalates (PAEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), was investigated in the water and sediment of 18 lakes in Tanzania. Similar residue concentrations were found in both compartments, showing higher pollution of PAEs ranging from 835.0 to 13,153.1 ng/L in water and 244.6–8691.8 ng/g dw in sediment, followed by PAHs, while OCPs and PCBs were comparatively lower. According to the multi-criteria scoring method for prioritization, the final OMP priority list for the lake environment in Tanzania comprised 25 chemicals, specifically 5 PAEs (DEHP, DIBP, DBP, DCHP and DMPP), 6 PCBs (PCB153, PCB105, PCB28, PCB156, PCB157 and PCB167), 6 PAHs (BaP, BaA, BbF, Pyr, DahA and InP) and 8 OCPs (cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, p,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDE, p,p’-DDT, endrin, methoxychlor and heptachlor epoxide), suggesting the key substances for conventional monitoring and pollution control in these equatorial lakes, with an emphasis on PAEs, especially DEHP, due to the top priority and endocrine disruptor properties.
  Zhonghua Zhao, Xiaolong Yao, Qiqi Ding, Xionghu Gong, Jianjun Wang, Saadu Tahir, Ishmael Aaron Kimirei, Lu Zhang, A comprehensive evaluation of organic micropollutants (OMPs) pollution and prioritization in equatorial lakes from mainland Tanzania, East Africa, Water Research, Volume 217, 2022, 118400, ISSN 0043-1354, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118400.
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