Climate Warming and Heatwaves Accelerate Global Lake Deoxygenation

Freshwater ecosystems require adequate oxygen levels to sustain aerobic life and maintain healthy biological communities. However, both long-term climate warming and the increasing frequency and intensity of short-term heatwaves are significantly reducing surface dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in lakes worldwide, according to a new study published in Science Advances.Led by Prof. SHI Kun and Prof. ZHANG Yunlin from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in collaboration with researchers from the Nanjing University and the UK’s Bangor University, the study quantifies the effects of continuous climate warming and intensified heatwave events on surface DO levels in lakes worldwide. The research team utilized an extensive dataset and applied a data-driven model to analyze surface DO variations across more than 15,000 lakes over the past two decades.The study reveals a widespread decline in surface DO concentrations, with 83% of the studied lakes exhibiting significant deoxygenation. Notably, the average rate of deoxygenation in lakes exceeds that of both oceans and rivers, highlighting the severity of this issue.The researchers further explored the roles of climate warming and eutrophication in shaping surface DO concentrations. Their findings indicate that climate warming, by reducing oxygen solubility, contributes to 55% of global surface deoxygenation. Meanwhile, increasing eutrophication accounts for approximately 10% of the total global surface oxygen loss.Historical trends in heatwaves were also analyzed, with their impacts on surface DO levels quantitatively assessed. The study shows that heatwaves exert rapid and pronounced effects on surface DO decline, resulting in a 7.7% reduction in surface DO compared to conditions under average climatological temperatures.These findings underscore the profound impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to preserve lake ecosystems worldwide. The study provides crucial insights for policymakers and environmental managers working to combat the escalating threat of freshwater deoxygenation.

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Wind Speed Changes Significantly Influence Global Vegetation Carbon Uptake
2025-10-22
A new study published in Nature Communications reveals that variations in terrestrial surface wind speed exert a substantial influence on global vegetation productivity, reshaping how land ecosystems absorb and store carbon.Traditionally, the strengthening of the terrestrial carbon sink has been attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate warming, and nitrogen deposition. However, wind speed—an essential meteorological factor regulating gas exchange, evapotranspiration, and plant water status—has received little attention. Global surface winds weakened markedly before 2010, showed a partial recovery afterward, and are projected to decline again later this century.Researchers led by Prof. FU Congsheng from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NIGLAS), integrated reanalysis, satellite, eddy-covariance, and CMIP6 model datasets to evaluate the sensitivity of global ecosystems carbon uptake to wind speed changes from 1983 to 2100. The study reveals that lower wind speeds increase canopy humidity and soil moisture, reduce vapor pressure deficit, and enhance stomatal conductance—collectively stimulating photosynthesis despite increased boundary-layer resistance.Between 1983 and 2010, the observed decline in wind speed contributed approximately 6–8% of the global increase in gross primary productivity (GPP), second only to the CO₂ fertilization effect. Grassland ecosystems exhibited the strongest response, with wind speed variations explaining up to 70% of productivity increases. Model projections further indicate that this sensitivity will strengthen throughout the 21st century, implying that continued wind stilling could enhance terrestrial carbon uptake in the future.“Surface wind speed is not merely a background climate variable but a key regulator of land carbon fluxes,” said Dr. WU Haohao, the first of the study.“Neglecting wind speed effects may lead to systematic biases in carbon cycle projections, particularly in grassland ecosystems,” added Prof. FU Congsheng, the study's corresponding author.Researchers from Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences (France), Princeton University, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Sun Yat-sen University also contributed to the study.Coniferous–Broadleaf Mixed Forests in Northeast China (Photo by Wu Haohao)
​Global Average Farm Size May Triple by 2100 Amid Rural Population Decline
2025-10-20
Farm size plays a crucial role in shaping food production systems and environmental outcomes. However, its long-term global trends have remained poorly understood.In a study published in Nature Communications on October 17, a research team led by Professor LIU Lei from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reconstructed and analyzed a global dataset on farm size spanning from 1970 to 2020, revealing key historical shifts and future trajectories.The study shows that the global average socio-economic farm size—defined as agricultural land area divided by the number of farms—first decreased by 15% from 1970 to 2000, then increased by 14% from 2000 to 2020. Under a moderate future development pathway, it is projected to triple by 2100.“The main driver of recent and future expansion is rural population decline, which reduces the number of people operating farms, leading to land consolidation,” explained Professor LIU, the corresponding author of the study.Regional trends, however, diverge significantly. While Europe, Northern America, and Oceania have seen exponential growth in recent decades, countries such as India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa have experienced a decline in average farm size due to population pressure and specific land policies.“Regional divergence in farm size trends reflects structural and institutional conditions,” said Prof. LIU. The impact of policies was also highlighted. The study shows that legislation such as the U.S. Agricultural Adjustment Act accelerated consolidation, while India's Land Ceiling Acts and China's Household Responsibility System have historically preserved smaller farm structures.These findings underscore profound socio-economic and environmental implications of farm consolidation, which can boost productivity but may also reduce rural employment and biodiversity.“Policies that promote consolidation should be designed with safeguards to protect smallholder livelihoods and ensure that the benefits do not come at the cost of rural development or food security,” said Prof. LIU.
Study Reveals Global Lake Eutrophication Trends
2025-09-29
A new study led by Dr. ZHANG Yibo from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides the first global assessment of long-term changes in lake trophic state and their driving mechanisms. The findings were recently published in Global Change Biology.Using 3,756 field measurements combined with remote sensing observations, the team developed a high-accuracy trophic state index (TSI) retrieval model by integrating semi-analytical algorithms with machine learning. Applying this model, they quantified TSI trends for 14,189 lakes larger than 10 km² worldwide from 2003 to 2023.Results show a significant global trend of eutrophication, with TSI increasing by 0.19 per decade. Strong regional contrasts were observed: lakes in North America, Europe, Russia, and parts of Africa are rapidly eutrophying, while those in South America, Australia, and West Asia show signs of improvement.The study identifies climate warming, stronger solar radiation, increased wind speeds, and intensified rainfall as key natural drivers, while urban expansion and fertilizer use are the main anthropogenic contributors. Conversely, watershed vegetation cover was found to mitigate nutrient loading and slow eutrophication.This research fills a major knowledge gap on global lake water quality, offering new insights into the combined impacts of climate change and human activity, and providing a scientific basis for predicting future ecological trajectories and guiding water management strategies.Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of global mean TSI and trophic state classifications for global lakes during 2003–2023Fig. 2. Global trends in lake TSI during 2003–2023Article Information:Xie, G., Zhang, Y.*, Wang, Q., Shi, K., Zhang, Y., Zhou, Y., Qin, B., He, J., & Li, N. (2025). Multiple impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on lacustrine trophic state. Global Change Biology, 31(9), e70510.Link to article: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70510
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Synergistic effects of warming and internal nutrient loading interfere with the long-term stability of lake restoration and induce sudden re-eutrophication
2023-02-27

  Urban lakes are globally ubiquitous and are usually highly eutrophic, pointing to an increase in frequency, duration and magnitude of harmful algal blooms as wide-spread threats to ecological and human health. 
  Over half a century, phosphate (P) precipitation is among the most effective treatments to mitigate eutrophication in these lakes. However, after a period of high effectiveness, re-eutrophication would possibly occur leading to the return of harmful algal blooms. While such abrupt ecological changes were presumably attributed to internal P loading, the role of lake warming and its potential synergistic effects with the internal loading, thus far, has been largely understudied. 
  Researchers led by Dr. KONG Xiangzhen and Prof. Dr. XUE Bin from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, along with their international collaborators, have addressed the question by quantifying the contributions of lake warming and the potential synergistic effects with internal P loading in an urban lake located in central Germany, which suffered from the abrupt re-eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms in 2016 (30 years after the first P precipitation). 
  Their findings were published in Environmental Science & Technology on Feb. 20. 
  In this study, a process-based lake ecosystem model (GOTM-WET) was established using a high-frequency monitoring dataset covering eutro-/oligo-trophic states over 30 years. 
  Model analyses suggested that, for the abrupt occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms, internal P release accounts for 68% of the biomass proliferation, while lake warming contributed to 32%, including both direct effects via promoting growth (18%) and synergistic effects via intensifying internal P loading (14%). The model further revealed that the synergy was attributed to prolonged lake hypolimnion warming and oxygen depletion. 
  “Our study exemplifies how process-based mechanistic modeling could help to tease apart important drivers of abrupt shifts and cyanobacterial blooms in lakes, particularly in an era of rapid global changes including climate change and human activities.” said Dr. Kong. 
  This study unravels the substantial role of lake warming in promoting cyanobacterial blooms in re-eutrophicated lakes. The indirect effects of warming on cyanobacteria via promoting internal loading need more attention in future lake research and management. 
  “Our findings will have far-reaching consequences for lake restoration and management as the nutrient targets we applied so far to reach or maintain a certain trophic state will not work in a far warmer future and need to be adjusted, i.e. stronger nutrient level reduction and higher efforts in restoration are demanded.” said Dr. Kong.
   
  link: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c07181
   
   
  Contact 
  TAN Lei 
  Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology 
  E-mail: ltan@niglas.ac.cn
Sediment organic matter properties facilitate understanding nitrogen transformation potentials in East African lakes
2022-10-20

  East African lakes include the most productive and alkaline lake group in the world. Yet, they generally receive fewer nutrient inputs than the densely populated subtropical and temperate lakes in the northern hemisphere. In these lakes with insufficient supplies of inorganic nitrogen, the mineralization of benthic organic matter can play an important role in driving the nutrient cycle and nitrogen loss. Using a suite of stable 15N isotope dilution and tracer techniques, we examined five main processes of the sediment nitrogen cycle in 16 lakes and reservoirs of Tanzania and Kenya, East Africa: gross nitrogen mineralization, ammonium immobilization, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA), and the dinitrogen (N2) production via denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox). Gross nitrogen mineralization and ammonium immobilization showed the maximum values of 9.84 and 12.39 μmol N kg-1 h-1 , respectively. Potential DNRA rates ranged from 0.22 to 8.15 μmol N kg-1 h-1 and accounted for 10 %–74 % (average 25 %) of the total dissimilatory nitrate reduction. Potential nitrate reduction rates in most lakes were dominated by denitrification with a contribution of 26 %–85 % and a mean of 65 %. We further found that the sediment nitrogen transformations were driven mainly by benthic organic matter properties and water column phosphate concentrations, reflecting microbial metabolic responses to the changing carbon and nutrients availability. For instance, autochthonous production of protein-like organic matter attributed to active sediment nitrogen mineralization, DNRA, and denitrification. In contrast, the high degree of humification caused by the inputs of terrestrial humic-like substances slowed down the sediment nitrogen transformations. The contribution of DNRA to total dissimilatory nitrate reduction was significantly positively correlated to sediment C: N ratios. These results indicate that predictions of sediment N supply and loss in East African lakes can be improved by incorporating sediment organic matter properties.
  Xiaolong Yao, Zhonghua Zhao, Jianjun Wang, Qiqi Ding, Minglei Ren, Ismael Aaron Kimirei, Lu Zhang, Sediment organic matter properties facilitate understanding nitrogen transformation potentials in East African lakes, Science of The Total Environment, 841, 2022, 156607, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156607.
A comprehensive evaluation of organic micropollutants (OMPs) pollution and prioritization in equatorial lakes from mainland Tanzania, East Africa
2022-05-17

  A lack of understanding the fate of highly toxic organic micropollutants (OMPs) in the equatorial lakes of Tanzania hinders public awareness for protecting these unique aquatic ecosystems, which are precious water resources and stunning wildlife habitats. To address this knowledge gap, the occurrence of 70 anthropogenically-sourced OMPs, including phthalates (PAEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), was investigated in the water and sediment of 18 lakes in Tanzania. Similar residue concentrations were found in both compartments, showing higher pollution of PAEs ranging from 835.0 to 13,153.1 ng/L in water and 244.6–8691.8 ng/g dw in sediment, followed by PAHs, while OCPs and PCBs were comparatively lower. According to the multi-criteria scoring method for prioritization, the final OMP priority list for the lake environment in Tanzania comprised 25 chemicals, specifically 5 PAEs (DEHP, DIBP, DBP, DCHP and DMPP), 6 PCBs (PCB153, PCB105, PCB28, PCB156, PCB157 and PCB167), 6 PAHs (BaP, BaA, BbF, Pyr, DahA and InP) and 8 OCPs (cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, p,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDE, p,p’-DDT, endrin, methoxychlor and heptachlor epoxide), suggesting the key substances for conventional monitoring and pollution control in these equatorial lakes, with an emphasis on PAEs, especially DEHP, due to the top priority and endocrine disruptor properties.
  Zhonghua Zhao, Xiaolong Yao, Qiqi Ding, Xionghu Gong, Jianjun Wang, Saadu Tahir, Ishmael Aaron Kimirei, Lu Zhang, A comprehensive evaluation of organic micropollutants (OMPs) pollution and prioritization in equatorial lakes from mainland Tanzania, East Africa, Water Research, Volume 217, 2022, 118400, ISSN 0043-1354, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118400.
Re-evaluation of Wetland Carbon Sink Mitigation
2022-03-22

  A new review of coastal and inland wetland carbon sink services reveals current mitigation concepts for greenhouse gas emissions and measurements are not what they seem. Accumulation of buried organic carbon is not a measure of carbon sequestration; stable organic carbon inputs require subtraction and are undervalued; and carbon mitigation from wetland restoration is less than their preservation. 
  The study was published in the journal Wetlands as a flagship Mark Brison Review, from Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NIGLAS) in collaboration with Borneo Marine Research Institute (BMRI) Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), and lead by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) University of Tasmania (UTAS).  
  Associate Reseacher Dr John Barry Gallagher (IMAS) said that the sediment organic carbon accumulation down inland and coastal wetlands has always been regarded as a convenient means of measuring trends and average rates of sequestration over climatic scales. Wetlands, however, are open to organic inputs from catchments and adjacent water bodies. These can be labile and easily consumed or decomposed, and recalcitrant outside the carbon loop that is not consumed or decomposed. 
  Consequently, what is required from the sediment record is not the total organic burial, but the burial rate of what remains of the wetlands plant production from the amount of the labile organics inputs consumed, and the remains of those recalcitrants inputs, largely black or pyrogenic carbon. To estimate this we modified a general decomposition model to hindcast the original input rate and to project what remains for all organic sources after 100 years of burial. 
  For a mangrove and a seagrass ecosystem, we found that carbon accumulation was on average 33.5 and 7.2 times greater than their respective sequestration rates. We also noted that sequestration relative to its non-canopy replacement or alternative stable state is not included for voluntary or compliance carbon markets, instead, only the rate of loss and gain of organic stocks for wetlands likely be disturbed or restored. This limitation would otherwise undervalue the wetlands systems mitigation potential with one caveat: the rate of gain in sediment stocks for a restored system is similarly constrained as a mitigation service by consumption and decomposition of those external organic inputs. 
  Dr Gallagher says that the review is important from two standpoints. Firstly, natural carbon sequestration solutions require re-evaluation. This is required to avoid GHG emissions above their capacity or indeed reduce the ability to fulfil Nations’emission targets, as set by COP26. Secondly, the model provides a new Paleoecological tool. It has the potential to measure and predict how wetlands' ability to function as a carbon sink can change with both climate and catchment agricultural and industrial development from changes to government policy.
  Paper link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13157-022-01539-5 
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